Observe the structure
Start with price, participation and volatility. Separate what the market did from the story told about it.
THE INDEPENDENT RESEARCH NOTEBOOK EST. 2026
Read the market.
Question the story.
Market structure, systematic ideas, and the evidence that holds up under review. An independent practice in understanding uncertain markets.
Explore the research ↗LATEST RESEARCH UPDATEResearch progress
A promising change.
A higher bar for evidence. ↗
Historical comparisons and artificial scenarios produced mixed evidence. Our September–October review explains what improved, what did not, and why the candidate remains research.
01Selected findings,
published when the
evidence warrants it.
published when the
evidence warrants it.
01 / THE APPROACHConviction needs
Conviction needs
something to stand on.
Test the idea
Make assumptions explicit. Look for conditions that challenge an interpretation, across samples and market regimes.
Keep the record
Preserve the data cutoff, what changed, and what remains uncertain. AI assists the review; judgment remains human.
A personal practice.
A systematic process.
AiTrader is my independent research practice at the intersection of financial markets, quantitative methods and AI-assisted review.
I focus on how a market view is formed, tested and revised. This notebook shares selected conclusions and their limitations; model construction and execution rules remain private.
Read the evidence standard ↗Good questions
are a good beginning.
For research discussions, technical collaboration
and analytical infrastructure enquiries.